Can Modi Wave Put Pondicherry In BJP's Kitty?

When the whole country was ruled by British a tiny little coastal area in the Tamil Nadu coastline was ruled by the French and they also had 3 other such places namely Karaikal, Yanam and Mahe in other neighbouring South Indian states. This place was named as Pondicherry and Puducherry recently. Since the first general election in 1952, people were so keen on voting for Congress.

The recent assembly elections in 2011 saw a major split where the erstwhile Congress leader Rangaswamy went on to form his own party and contested the election in an alliance with ADMK. He also came out with flying colours. The scope of saffron party will be very less to succeed as the french colony is a mix of Vanniyar and other such castes. They are the traditional voters of the Congress and the other two dravidian parties. Till now once or twice ADMK managed to form a state government of its own. But out of the 15 lok sabha elections, only two favoured DMK and ADMK that too as an ally partner. BJP fielded Lalitha Kumaramangalam against M. Ramadoss of PMK(which was the then UPA ally).

But the BJP candidate was smart enough to finish second in the 2004 elections with a vote share of 35.65 percent. The formidable grand alliance broke away all those efforts and turned victorious. The 2009 election gave a clear cut majority for the Congress and the candidate who represented UPA on a PMK ticket came second to Narayanaswamy of Congress and Visveswaran of BJP finished with a vote share of 2.21 percent.

BJP was lucky enough in the 2001 assembly elections where it managed to win the Reddiarpalayam seat. A party like BJP winning this seat is definitely a surprise for various reasons. One such reason is, Reddiarpalayam is a mixture of Vanniyars and other religious people. They voted for Communist in 1996 and 1991. The positive wave of good governance carried-out by Vajpayee as Prime Minister could've favoured it. But the candidate who fought for the BJP was not in the party for the next election.

Considering the fact that a strong leader can bring votes, the Modi wave can definitely pave way for the saffron party to win this lone lok sabha segment. But the tough fight between the regional parties can curtail BJP's chances.

Will Modi Rallies Turn Into Votes For BJP In Tamil Nadu?

Geographical limitations matters a lot for a party like BJP that has failed to connect with people in South India as its rival Congress does. The latter has a track record of good governance in Tamil Nadu by its erstwhile leader Kamaraj and an example of bad governance by his successor Bhakthavatsalam who was the last Congress Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.

The overall tally of the 2009 general elections' victory of Congress can be manifested to Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh as other states saw a tough fight for the congress from regional as well as other national parties including the BJP. It managed to win West Bengal by allying with Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, which is also another potential state sending 42 candidates to the Lok Sabha. Both Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh send 39 candidates to the Lok Sabha. A strong base in both states is one of the reason why Congress is in the front run when compared with BJP even in an overall perspective.

Even when the emergency declared by the Indira Gandhi government in 1975 had a major negative impact for the party in 1977 elections in North and other parts of the country, South still favoured Congress a lot. Thanks for the freedom fighters and the erstwhile Congress leader Kamaraj who still many elder people consider as the best Chief Minister.

But North had a major impact aftermath emergency in 1977. 80 out of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh was won by the Bharatiya Lok Dal. In Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh as well, the then non-Congress party had a say. So this is where the saffron party lacks. Even though it claims itself to be the agent of change, it has failed to shine in three of the most potential states that favours Congress.

The Hindutva factor also pulls back BJP in South. ADMK as well as the DMK was seen losing vote share when they allied with it. One fine example would be the 2004 general elections in which NDA saw the presence of ADMK that drew a 0 for the alliance.

But voters of these two states where generous and recognized the saffron party in certain areas. Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Tiruchirapalli and Nagercoil voted for the BJP.

Located in the Western Ghats bordering Kerala and Karnataka, Nilgiris constitutes major hill stations such as Ooty, Coonoor etc. Chances of winnability could be tough as even though it has a 78%-80% of Hindu population that favours the saffron party, it has been a stronghold of Congress leader R. Prabhu who has been voted 4 times in a row and also a fifth time in 2004. But the hefty Hindu populated constituency sent Master Mathan of BJP to the Lok Sabha in 1998 as well as 1999. But he was not able to continue that as Congress and DMK took hold after 2004 and till now. Some heavy work load for the party cadres here could increase the chances of BJP to win this seat as the effect of Modi is seen through-out India.

The southern most tip of the Indian subcontinent seems to be favourable for the BJP. If seen from 1996 to 2009, Pon Radhakrishnan(BJP State President) finished second except in 1999 when he was one among the four BJP's Tamil Nadu lok sabha members. But the negative factor is, it is also a christian dominated area. Most of the seats or almost all seats are being won by Congress as well as DMK. Representation Modi can increase the chances of BJP's victory here. Provided it focuses well.

BJP was confident enough to make inroads in Tamil Nadu when the Congress' Salem Member of Parliament Rangarajan Kumaramangalam joined the party in 1997 and won Tiruchirapalli in 1998 as a BJP candidate. His death in 2000 due to blood cancer also closed the door for BJP to continue trying to make inroads into Tamil nadu. Srirangam assembly segment is highly dominated by a Brahmin vote bank. By fielding a strong candidate, the saffron party would've expected to gain atleast one assembly seat in the 2011 assembly elections. Proclaiming it to be her native, ADMK chief Jayalalithaa contested and even won in the Srirangam assembly segment, which adds an insult to the injury. 2001 assembly elections in Tamil Nadu favoured a BJP candidate who contested from the Srirangam assembly segment. So fielding a strong leader like Rangarajan Kumaramangalam can increase the chances of winning for BJP.

Few leaders of the saffron party has stood up to the show and tried to protect their firewalls. But a negative wave can very well break all such firewalls. One such examples of this case is Coimbatore. C.P. Radhakrishnan won Coimbatore lok sabha seat in 1998 as well as 1999. But a general negative wave against BJP also grabbed his opportunity to win next time as the communists hailed a successful show in 2004 as well as 2009. But Radhakrishnan finsihed second with a vote share of 38.72 percent. Considering the fact that this constituency always voted for national parties in a row, BJP can be expected to make some good gains with some strong propagation of itself.

The local body polls in Tamil Nadu in 2011 saw BJP winning some wards in a southern district. So a complete focus on one particular area where it has a say, the party can win somewhere between 1-4 seats with the scenario of 1999. But if with a scenario as similar to that 2011 assembly elections, it could draw a 0. The recent rally of Narendra Modi in Tiruchirapalli saw a historical attendants of 7 lakhs. Will this mega rally turn into votes for the saffron party? Let us see what our voters are up to.

Delhi: Will BJP Reproduce The Same In Lok Sabha?

The Indian news channels had a good news on Sunday December 8, 2013 for the BJP, which showed victory for the saffron party in all 4 states that went to elections thereby giving 0 for Congress. 

The initial counting predicted victory for Congress in Chhatisgarh but finally BJP had it in hand with a majority. Rajasthan was a complete sweep as the charisma of Vasundhara Raje took BJP for a landslide victory. Madhya Pradesh saw Shivraj Singh Chauhan taking BJP for a third term. As predicted by most of the opinion polls, Delhi was a hung assembly with BJP and AAP finishing closer.

Delhi was a stronghold of BJP in the 1990s and even before that. Sheila Dikshit's campaign for onion price rise paved way for a Congress Government and lasted till now. The same onion price rise, frequent rape cases etc. had curtailed a fourth term for Sheila Dikshit. But once lost, the saffron party had to put a lot of efforts to take it back. By the time they were all set to do so, the entry of AAP curbed it to some extent. Eventhough, it managed to be the single largest party without the halfway mark.

These elections have given a big boost to the BJP to go forward in its new path with Narendra Modi as Prime Ministerial candidate. But still considering the fact that AAP has made inroads into the vote bank of both the national parties, it seems to be a hectic task ahead for the BJP in the fight for its general election victory in 2014. Let us have a detailed look of constituency wise prediction for the 2014 general elections.

The East Delhi lok sabha seat constitutes 22 assembly segments, out of which BJP has managed to win 10. But other assembly segments of this constituency has mostly favoured congress in the past and in the recent one some of them went to the new entrant Aam Aadmi Party. So a fight between BJP and AAP is expected here, as the new entrant has pulled the votes of Congress. With all these taken into account, the probability to be victorious for the BJP is 60 percent.

West Delhi was a mere sweep by the BJP. Out of the 10 assembly segments, it managed to win 6. The congress favoured Rajouri Garden has been voting back for it since 1993 to 2009. Thanks to the NDA member Akali Dal which managed to grab the vote bank of Congress. But unlikely Hari Nagar, Tilak Nagar went to AAP from the BJP. So here too the fight is expected to be between these two parties as Congress has not gained even a single from these 10 assembly seats this time. So the chances of BJP winning the West Delhi lok sabha seat is higher with a little bit of Hefty fight from AAP.

Chandni Chowk has voted Congress in 2004 as well as 2009 but also BJP in 1998 and 1999. Out of the 10 assembly segments, only 3 turned in favour of BJP. Others went to Congress and AAP. So there could be tough fight between the 3 parties in this lok sabha seat with chances of winning is like cat in a wall case for BJP.

South Delhi can be cake walk for BJP as 7 out of 10 assembly segments went to it in the present elections. AAP managed to win the others while Congress was spotted with almost no seats and at the third spot.Madanlal Khurana, sushma Swaraj and VK Malhotra created a firewall for BJP from 1989 to 2009, which was broken by the Congress in 2009.

The magic of Sheila Dikshit evaded when she was spotted loosing to AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal and not a marginal victory. Landslide should be right word that has to be added. Initial stages of assembly election counting showed Arvind Kejriwal and Shazia Ilmi(AAP Contestant for RK Puram) trailing. but at the end, Kejriwal cameout with flying colours and Shazia with a dejected defeat. India's first general election in 1952 voted for Sucheta Kripalani of Kisan Mazdoor Praja Party. But later on New Delhi Lok Sabha constituency was dominated by either of the national parties. RK Puram and New Delhi assembly segment falls under this lok sabha seat. But these 10 assembly segments turned out to be negative for both BJP and Congress. Hence we can expect a loss for BJP here. But if the charisma of Modi can pull some votes, there should be some chances for BJP.

Sultanpur Majra is an assembly segment falling under north West delhi. In an overall view, BJP has either won or been second in the places where it contested. It is the only place where it is placed fourth i.e., less number of votes even less than Bahujan Samajwadi Party. So North West Delhi may not vote for BJP most confidently. But it managed to get 5 out of 10 assembly seats.

North East Delhi saw 2 assembly seats being won by Aam Aadmi Party and 5 by BJP and others by Congress. The new entrant is yet to make inroads into the vote base of either of the national parties also even into that of BSP's. but Congress and BJP still have a hold in these places hence the probability of victory for the BJP should be around 40%.

Overall, in most of the places the saffron party has ate into the votes of Congress but only to some

extent. It was Aam Aadmi Party which shunned Congress to move forward. Therefore with the current trend we can expect BJP to win 3 or 4 seats out of 7 in the upcoming lok sabha elections in 2014.