Geographical limitations matters a lot
for a party like BJP that has failed to connect with people in South
India as its rival Congress does. The latter has a track record of
good governance in Tamil Nadu by its erstwhile leader Kamaraj and an
example of bad governance by his successor Bhakthavatsalam who was
the last Congress Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.
The overall tally of the 2009 general
elections' victory of Congress can be manifested to Tamil Nadu and
Andhra Pradesh as other states saw a tough fight for the congress
from regional as well as other national parties including the BJP. It
managed to win West Bengal by allying with Mamata Banerjee's
Trinamool Congress, which is also another potential state sending 42
candidates to the Lok Sabha. Both Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh send
39 candidates to the Lok Sabha. A strong base in both states is one
of the reason why Congress is in the front run when compared with BJP
even in an overall perspective.
Even when the emergency declared by the
Indira Gandhi government in 1975 had a major negative impact for the
party in 1977 elections in North and other parts of the country,
South still favoured Congress a lot. Thanks for the freedom fighters
and the erstwhile Congress leader Kamaraj who still many elder people
consider as the best Chief Minister.
But North had a major impact aftermath
emergency in 1977. 80 out of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh was won by
the Bharatiya Lok Dal. In Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh as well,
the then non-Congress party had a say. So this is where the saffron
party lacks. Even though it claims itself to be the agent of change,
it has failed to shine in three of the most potential states that
favours Congress.
The Hindutva factor also pulls back BJP
in South. ADMK as well as the DMK was seen losing vote share when
they allied with it. One fine example would be the 2004 general
elections in which NDA saw the presence of ADMK that drew a 0 for the
alliance.
But voters of these two states where
generous and recognized the saffron party in certain areas. Nilgiris,
Coimbatore, Tiruchirapalli and Nagercoil voted for the BJP.
Located in the Western Ghats bordering
Kerala and Karnataka, Nilgiris constitutes major hill stations such
as Ooty, Coonoor etc. Chances of winnability could be tough as even
though it has a 78%-80% of Hindu population that favours the saffron
party, it has been a stronghold of Congress leader R. Prabhu who has
been voted 4 times in a row and also a fifth time in 2004. But the
hefty Hindu populated constituency sent Master Mathan of BJP to the
Lok Sabha in 1998 as well as 1999. But he was not able to continue
that as Congress and DMK took hold after 2004 and till now. Some
heavy work load for the party cadres here could increase the chances
of BJP to win this seat as the effect of Modi is seen through-out
India.
The southern most tip of the Indian
subcontinent seems to be favourable for the BJP. If seen from 1996 to
2009, Pon Radhakrishnan(BJP State President) finished second except
in 1999 when he was one among the four BJP's Tamil Nadu lok sabha
members. But the negative factor is, it is also a christian dominated
area. Most of the seats or almost all seats are being won by Congress
as well as DMK. Representation Modi can increase the chances of BJP's
victory here. Provided it focuses well.
BJP was confident enough to make
inroads in Tamil Nadu when the Congress' Salem Member of Parliament
Rangarajan Kumaramangalam joined the party in 1997 and won
Tiruchirapalli in 1998 as a BJP candidate. His death in 2000 due to
blood cancer also closed the door for BJP to continue trying to make
inroads into Tamil nadu. Srirangam assembly segment is highly
dominated by a Brahmin vote bank. By fielding a strong candidate, the
saffron party would've expected to gain atleast one assembly seat in
the 2011 assembly elections. Proclaiming it to be her native, ADMK
chief Jayalalithaa contested and even won in the Srirangam assembly
segment, which adds an insult to the injury. 2001 assembly elections
in Tamil Nadu favoured a BJP candidate who contested from the
Srirangam assembly segment. So fielding a strong leader like
Rangarajan Kumaramangalam can increase the chances of winning for
BJP.
Few leaders of the saffron party has
stood up to the show and tried to protect their firewalls. But a
negative wave can very well break all such firewalls. One such
examples of this case is Coimbatore. C.P. Radhakrishnan won
Coimbatore lok sabha seat in 1998 as well as 1999. But a general
negative wave against BJP also grabbed his opportunity to win next
time as the communists hailed a successful show in 2004 as well as
2009. But Radhakrishnan finsihed second with a vote share of 38.72
percent. Considering the fact that this constituency always voted for
national parties in a row, BJP can be expected to make some good
gains with some strong propagation of itself.
The local body polls in Tamil Nadu in
2011 saw BJP winning some wards in a southern district. So a complete
focus on one particular area where it has a say, the party can win
somewhere between 1-4 seats with the scenario of 1999. But if with a
scenario as similar to that 2011 assembly elections, it could draw a
0. The recent rally of Narendra Modi in Tiruchirapalli saw a
historical attendants of 7 lakhs. Will this mega rally turn into
votes for the saffron party? Let us see what our voters are up to.
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