Delhi: Will BJP Reproduce The Same In Lok Sabha?

The Indian news channels had a good news on Sunday December 8, 2013 for the BJP, which showed victory for the saffron party in all 4 states that went to elections thereby giving 0 for Congress. 

The initial counting predicted victory for Congress in Chhatisgarh but finally BJP had it in hand with a majority. Rajasthan was a complete sweep as the charisma of Vasundhara Raje took BJP for a landslide victory. Madhya Pradesh saw Shivraj Singh Chauhan taking BJP for a third term. As predicted by most of the opinion polls, Delhi was a hung assembly with BJP and AAP finishing closer.

Delhi was a stronghold of BJP in the 1990s and even before that. Sheila Dikshit's campaign for onion price rise paved way for a Congress Government and lasted till now. The same onion price rise, frequent rape cases etc. had curtailed a fourth term for Sheila Dikshit. But once lost, the saffron party had to put a lot of efforts to take it back. By the time they were all set to do so, the entry of AAP curbed it to some extent. Eventhough, it managed to be the single largest party without the halfway mark.

These elections have given a big boost to the BJP to go forward in its new path with Narendra Modi as Prime Ministerial candidate. But still considering the fact that AAP has made inroads into the vote bank of both the national parties, it seems to be a hectic task ahead for the BJP in the fight for its general election victory in 2014. Let us have a detailed look of constituency wise prediction for the 2014 general elections.

The East Delhi lok sabha seat constitutes 22 assembly segments, out of which BJP has managed to win 10. But other assembly segments of this constituency has mostly favoured congress in the past and in the recent one some of them went to the new entrant Aam Aadmi Party. So a fight between BJP and AAP is expected here, as the new entrant has pulled the votes of Congress. With all these taken into account, the probability to be victorious for the BJP is 60 percent.

West Delhi was a mere sweep by the BJP. Out of the 10 assembly segments, it managed to win 6. The congress favoured Rajouri Garden has been voting back for it since 1993 to 2009. Thanks to the NDA member Akali Dal which managed to grab the vote bank of Congress. But unlikely Hari Nagar, Tilak Nagar went to AAP from the BJP. So here too the fight is expected to be between these two parties as Congress has not gained even a single from these 10 assembly seats this time. So the chances of BJP winning the West Delhi lok sabha seat is higher with a little bit of Hefty fight from AAP.

Chandni Chowk has voted Congress in 2004 as well as 2009 but also BJP in 1998 and 1999. Out of the 10 assembly segments, only 3 turned in favour of BJP. Others went to Congress and AAP. So there could be tough fight between the 3 parties in this lok sabha seat with chances of winning is like cat in a wall case for BJP.

South Delhi can be cake walk for BJP as 7 out of 10 assembly segments went to it in the present elections. AAP managed to win the others while Congress was spotted with almost no seats and at the third spot.Madanlal Khurana, sushma Swaraj and VK Malhotra created a firewall for BJP from 1989 to 2009, which was broken by the Congress in 2009.

The magic of Sheila Dikshit evaded when she was spotted loosing to AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal and not a marginal victory. Landslide should be right word that has to be added. Initial stages of assembly election counting showed Arvind Kejriwal and Shazia Ilmi(AAP Contestant for RK Puram) trailing. but at the end, Kejriwal cameout with flying colours and Shazia with a dejected defeat. India's first general election in 1952 voted for Sucheta Kripalani of Kisan Mazdoor Praja Party. But later on New Delhi Lok Sabha constituency was dominated by either of the national parties. RK Puram and New Delhi assembly segment falls under this lok sabha seat. But these 10 assembly segments turned out to be negative for both BJP and Congress. Hence we can expect a loss for BJP here. But if the charisma of Modi can pull some votes, there should be some chances for BJP.

Sultanpur Majra is an assembly segment falling under north West delhi. In an overall view, BJP has either won or been second in the places where it contested. It is the only place where it is placed fourth i.e., less number of votes even less than Bahujan Samajwadi Party. So North West Delhi may not vote for BJP most confidently. But it managed to get 5 out of 10 assembly seats.

North East Delhi saw 2 assembly seats being won by Aam Aadmi Party and 5 by BJP and others by Congress. The new entrant is yet to make inroads into the vote base of either of the national parties also even into that of BSP's. but Congress and BJP still have a hold in these places hence the probability of victory for the BJP should be around 40%.

Overall, in most of the places the saffron party has ate into the votes of Congress but only to some

extent. It was Aam Aadmi Party which shunned Congress to move forward. Therefore with the current trend we can expect BJP to win 3 or 4 seats out of 7 in the upcoming lok sabha elections in 2014.